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 Post subject: is this perfect timing or what?
PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2006 12:52 pm 
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Reprinted from NewsMax.com

Tuesday, March 14, 2006 12:49 p.m. EST
Vicente Fox Announces Huge Oil Find


Mexico has discovered a huge new oil reserve that will increase its production capacity by nearly 50 percent, President Vicente Fox said Monday night - explaining that he intends to discuss how he'll use his new oil bonanza when he meets with President Bush in two weeks.

"We have excellent news that we will be announcing in a couple of weeks from now," Fox told MSNBC's "Rita Cosby Live and Direct."

He described the find as "a huge new reserve of oil and natural gas in the Gulf of Mexico that belongs to Mexicans" and noted that in his upcoming meeting with Bush, "energy is a key for our discussions."

Fox said his country's largest oil reserve is Cantarell, which is rapidly depleting. "This new reserve that we just have found will totally replace Cantarell with even more quantity then what originally Cantarell had," he told Cosby.


The White House announced over the weekend that Bush, Fox and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will hold an economic and security summit in Cancun on March 30 and 31. Among the items on the agenda: "our common prosperity."

Fox said the oil find would help both the U.S. and Mexico deal with their respective "migration" problems.

"We see that migration is not only moving from Mexico to United States," he explained. "Last year we had to hold over 200,000 Central Americans that cross the border with Mexico, and of course they had plans to work in Mexico for a time and then try to move to United States."

Fox said Mexico's expanding oil industry would help build job opportunities in both his country and Central America, which will ultimately benefit the U.S. "It will help all three of us, that is part of what we're discussing, how can we remain competitive, how we can have plenty of energy and how we use energy to the benefit of people," he told Cosby.

Fox is an unapologetic advocate of illegal immigration, saying it helps both the U.S. and Mexico. Earlier this year he objected to U.S. plans to build a security fence along the Mexican border.

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PostPosted: Wed Mar 22, 2006 2:53 pm 
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Once again bucky needs a reality check. This news may not be as great as it appears to be. it is merely a nother minor sustainer to a problem that is going to become too real in the near future.


US oil demand- 2004: Over 20 million barrels per day, up from January 2002, when demand was about 18.5 million barrels per day, = 777 million gallons. If lined up in 1-gallon cans, they would encircle the earth at the equator almost 6 times (about 147,000 miles of cans) — every day. Here's another image: EVERY DAY, the US consumes enough oil to cover a football field with a column of oil 2500 feet tall. That's 121 million cubic feet. 55-60% of US consumption is imported at a cost of $50 billion+ per year, amounting to the largest single element of our trade deficit. In summer 2004, thanks to higher prices, increased demand, and lower production, record trade deficits of more than $50 billion per month were recorded, with approximately 30% of that attributable to imported energy costs. In September 2004, the US reported its lowest montly oil production in 55 years, at an average of 4.85 million barrels per day.

U.S. gasoline consumption of 320,500,000 gallons per day (March 2005) works out to about 3700 gallons per second.

In March 2004, the total trade deficit was about $46 billion for the month, and oil imports were about 11 million barrels per day x $40 per barrel x 30 days per month = $13.2 billion, or about a quarter of the total trade deficit for the month. If March served as an average for the year, the total value of oil imports for 2004 would be about $156 billion — but this number depends on volume of imports (which is unlikely to decrease) and price of oil (which is likely to fluctuate).

US demand for natural gas is increasing, and production in many long-time prime producing areas (e.g. the Gulf Coast) is diminishing to the point of near-total depletion. Without significant increases in drilling (well beyond anticipated levels), demand is predicted to significantly exceed supply soon. By 2000, US demand (22.2 tcf/year) exceeded production (18.7 tcf/year) enough that about 14% of our natural gas was being imported from Canada.

US PRODUCTION, early 2002: About 5.9 million barrels of oil per day, plus about 2 million barrels of natural gas liquids and condensate; and 55 billion cubic feet of gas per day. Oil production is a decline from 8-9 million b/d in 1986.Update, 2005: at the end of 2005, US crude oil production stood at 4.86 million b/d, the lowest value in more than 50 years. Imports (10.01 million b/d) amounted to 67% of consumption. As shown in the figure at left, even when US production was at its peak in 1970 (and accounted for more than 40% of all the oil produced in the world), it could not keep up with consumption. Today's 21 million barrels per day consumption FAR outpaces our domestic production of 4.86 million barrels per day. Prudhoe Bay's contribution is shown in red.

The US gets ZERO oil from Iran.

In 2002 Iraq only supplied 3.9% of our imports. Up to 5% in 2005

Mexico provides 13% of oil imports. It is #2

14.5% of our imports come from Saudi Arabia, making it number 2. In 2005, Saudi Arabia dropped to #3 with 12% of our imports.

Venezuela is the 5th largest contributor to our imports at 11 million BPD , dropping to that position from a long-held #4 in 2005.

Norway is the 7th largest producer of oil in the World.

West Africa in general (Nigeria, Gabon, Angola, and others) supplies nearly 15% of our import needs.

The former Soviet Union is the largest producer of oil in the world.

Kuwait ranks 11th on the list of oil producing contries, right behind Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates.

The UAE is the largest supplier of oil to Japan.

Who then is our # 1 supplier of crude oil to America? Give up? Answer at bottom.

Leading Oil Consumers
USA (20 million barrels per day)
China (5.6)
Japan (5.5)
Germany

Leading Oil Importers
USA (11.1 million b/d)
Japan (5.3)
Germany (2.5)
South Korea (2.2)

In the U.S., about 35% of oil and gas production comes from reservoirs of Tertiary age (largely in the Gulf Coast and California); about 25% is from reservoirs of Pennsylvanian age (West Texas, Rockies, Midcontinent), and about 12% is from reservoirs of Cretaceous age. Sandstone reservoirs account for 70% of fields; limestone = 16%; dolomite = 11%.

The Offshore US Gulf of Mexico has become one of the "hottest" exploration areas in the world, just a few years after many had declared it the "Dead Sea" for exploration potential. Dramatic improvements in 3-D Seismic technology (increasing success rates to as much as 80%, up from less than 40%) and deepwater drilling methodology are largely the basis for this resurgence. And several very nice discoveries have not hurt one bit. Reserves in discovered deep-water (>500 meters) fields alone are estimated at nearly 1.5 billion barrels, with two fields (Shell's Mars and BP's Crazy Horse, renamed Thunder Horse) at about 100,000,000 barrels or more.

According to the MMS the undiscovered resource assessment is approximately:

For the western Gulf of Mexico, 37 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
For the central Gulf, over 92 billion BOE.
For the eastern Gulf, about nine billion BOE.
"Of course, our resources estimates are likely to be revised upwards due to new discoveries in entirely new geologic frontiers such as deep gas targets on the shelf," Oynes said.

Some Factors in the 2004-2005 cost of gasoline in the US

The price of Crude is up - as high as $70 per barrel.
This is because worldwide supply is tight and 1) gasoline demand in the US is up despite high prices - 4.3% more than 2003. Americans simply refuse to conserve. This is not trivial considering that the US, with 5% of the world's population, consumes 45% of the gasoline produced on earth. 2) Gasoline demand is surging in China, where crude oil imports increased 30% in 2003.

Refinery capacity in the US is near its maximum. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita impacted some refineries. Even before Katrina, average refinery capacity was less than US gasoline consumption More info. Oil tanker capacity for trans-oceanic shipping is also 100% reserved for the forseeable future, and shipping costs have nearly tripled [more info].

The US deficit, around $500 billion in 2004, causes the value of the dollar to decline. Because oil is priced in dollars, no matter where in the world it comes from, producers want higher prices in order to maintain their income.

The US Government is buying at these high prices supplies for the strategic petroleum reserve. A minor impact, but some.

Local requirements for special gasoline blends to meet environmental regulations result in smaller batches, which are more expensive for refineries to produce. Applies especially to California.

Costs reflect distance from refineries (transportation cost). In the US, 50% of gasoline is refined in the Gulf Coast.

Variations reflect local taxes. Federal excise tax on gasoline is about 19¢ per gallon; state tax averages about 23¢ per gallon; in California there is an additional 7.5% sales tax.

Economic woes in Venezuela are impacting US imports more than problems in the Middle East. US imports from Venezuela were down 19% in 2003, and Venezuela, Mexico, Canada, and Saudi Arabia are the US's main suppliers, normally at about 15% each — but Venezuela in 2003 only provided about 12% of our imports (see table above).

Any time there is a problem with a pipeline or refinery, it can impact the supply of gasoline at least in local markets, and the price can spike.

Credit card fees paid by retailers amount to about 3.5%, or 7 cents a gallon at $2.00 per gallon. This is more than enough to eliminate all profit for the retailer, and in many cases results in an actual loss of several cents per gallon -- absorbed either through increased pump prices or in other elements of a retailer's business. Retailers with no other sources of profit may go out of business, further restricting ability to deliver gasoline.

So don't blame the corner gas station -- even the company-owned ones. The latter may absorb such losses through profits elsewhere in the system, but a loss is still a loss.

Even with all of this, the true price of gasoline has fallen more than 40% from its inflation-adjusted price of $3.11 per gallon in 1981. And in the US, at $2.50 per gallon, we pay about one-half to one-third of the price western Europeans and others have paid for many years. Icelanders pay about $6.12 per gallon (2004).

In the history of the world, according to AAPG presidential address, April 1993,
750 billion barrels have been produced.
1000 billion barrels are known in the ground
1000 billion barrels are estimated undiscovered

2 trillion is a common number you see for unproduced oil - but by no means does everyone agree on that number. "Peak Oil" people say half of all that can be produced has been produced (or soon will be) and half remains - maybe 1 trillion produced, 1 trillion remaining


America uses 20 million Barrels per day of crude X 365 days is a lot of fucking oil. 6.3 billion barrels per year. The world figure is much higher and these estimates could be smoke and mirrors as well. Speculation. I guess you could say that the find of Mexico's in the gulf is a mere drop in the bucket.

It's Canada at 17% as of 2002. Say thanks to your savior Canada, bucky.

http://www.gravmag.com/oil.html#imports

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