Hurricane Season is JUST Around the Corner

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:10 pm

okie dokie, artie chokie... I'll do it tomorrow, cuz right now, america's past time beckons... noooooooooo... not beeeeer... baseball...

mga · **Posted:** Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:55 am

Quote:

OK... Pop Quiz #2... in what year did the most major hurricanes form?

1930? umm....12?

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:19 pm

Nope sorry, mga... good guess tho... it was 1950 with 8...

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:21 pm

TheStripey1 wrote:

You all know that I love weather speculating right? And you also
know that I have absolutely no training in it either, right?

Well... We have been having a long duration sub-tropical moisture
plume originating near Honduras and creating a major rain event
across the eastern Caribbean but... it has for the most part stopped
the train of hurricanes...

There is now an upper air low that is apparently poised to sever
that plume... and there also appears to be one last Cape Verde
disturbance following along behind it... and something near jamaica
in the soon to be severed plume...

either of these could be Wilma...

Got Ark?

First... the western atlantic water vapor loop

Now, the eastern Atlantic water vapor loop

(hint: If you block out the two white frames (#2 and #6)... it makes
it easier to see...)

Ok... we now know that Wilma is that disturbance I pointed to near Jamaica... and the one that I pointed to behind that low that severed the sub-tropical moisture plume is now a system of interest to the weather
channelers... will it be Alpha? will it be a hurricane?

Time will tell...

And yes, you can reuse the water vapor loop link in the first post to look at the disturbance I refer to here...

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Fri Oct 21, 2005 2:41 pm

Ok... as requested, I went over our thread and accumulated the firsts that jumped out at me...

and here they are... so far... and with 6 weeks left in the season and with no slowing down, I expect that we will see more...

2005 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Firsts

Thu Jun 09, 2005 whereas it is not a hurricane now nor is it expected to become one, the first named Tropical Storm of the Atlantic basin is churning it's way towards the mainland...

this is the first time in history that there have been four named storms before July 6...

Hurricane Dennis... Earliest Cat 4 ever...

five named storms before July 15...

Hurricane Emily... 7/14/05 she's now a cat 3 with max sustained winds of 115 mph... first time ever in meterological history that there have been two cat 3s before August... cat 4... first time ever 2 Cat 4's before august...

TS Franklin... 7/22/05 earliest F storm ever

TS Gert... 7/25/05 earliest G storm ever...

TS Harvey... 8/03/05 as with the majority of the other storms this season, this is the EARLIEST ever 8th named tropical storm...

TS Irene... 8/07/05 cuz, it's the earliest formed ninth named storm EVER...

TS Katrina... 8/24/05 earliest K storm ever... earliest Cat 5 ever... 907mb...

TS Lee... 8/31/05

9/07/05 earliest ever 15 named storms...

Hurricane Maria... 9/02/05
Hurricane Nate ...
Hurricane Ophelia
TS Philippe... 9/18/05

Hurricane Rita... 9/18/05 earliest R storm ever... Hurricane status 9/20/05... Cat 5 9/21/05

Hurricane Stan... 10/02 earliest S storm ever...
TS Tammy... 10/05/05 earliest T storm ever
Hurricane Vince... 10/09/05 First "V" named storm, earliest 20th named system since they didn't name them in 1933 the last time there was 21 tropical systems... First Tropical System to ever hit Spain

Hurricane Wilma... 10/17/05 earliest 21st storm, first ever "W" named storm... hurricane status 10/18/05... 10/18/05... 892mb... cat 5... first time ever 3 Cat 5s in one year... 10/19/05 lowest pressure ever recorded in atlantic basin... 882mb with a teeny tiny 2 mile in diameter eye that wobbles when it moves forward, kind of like a camshaft in a souped up car... the experts on the weather channel said that that was a first for them...

21 named tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin ties the record for most named systems in one season set in 1933. Attaining hurricane status ties with 1969 as the most hurricanes in one season...

More to come? no doubt...

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:18 pm

Catastrophic Hurricane Wilma now has her own thread which can be accessed by clicking...

[url=http://tvnewslies.org/phpbb/viewtopic.php?t=2398]HERE...

[/url]

Alkemi · **Posted:** Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:29 pm

Left a couple firsts out that I can think of

Hurricane Catrina in South America was a first

Whatever hurricane hit Spain was a first.

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:52 pm

catrina was last year... and Vince is the one that hit Spain... and I annotated it... it's right up there... points up... in red...

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:57 pm

here's the latest discussion on that disturbance in the eastern caribbean... could this be Alpha?

Quote:

Tropical Discussion

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS FROM 12N...JUST CLIPPING GRENADA...TO 15N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W. OTHER CLUSTERS AND CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS FROM 15N NORTH TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS LOW CENTER FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING... AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION
CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

and here's a satellite view of it too... it's just to the west of the Antilles...

Is this Alpha?

mga · **Posted:** Fri Oct 21, 2005 7:54 pm

in a strange way, i love when nature produces things like this. i find it fascinating...and not in a morbid way. nature is nature and i consider myself fortunate that i can witness things that nature does....good or bad.

TUTUTKAMEN · **Posted:** Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:25 pm

Are you sure it is Mother Nature?

http://tvnewslies.org/phpbb/viewtopic.p ... highlight=

TUT :wink:

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Sat Oct 22, 2005 2:41 pm

we have tropical depression #25 and they expect it to become ALPHA later today or tomorrow...

The good news is that they do not expect it to affect the US mainland... the bad is that it is headed towards Hispaniola where the mountains are tall, and the villagers poor... they expect copious amounts of rain from this system and as a consequence, flooding and mudslides... :shock:

Here's the first public advisory on it

and an overview showing both TD#25 and Hurricane Wilma...

Now... I just checked the satellite that shows systems developing in Africa and even though the Cape Verde Islands tropical system developement period is supposed to be over, it still appears to be active... does this mean that hurricane season may last longer than November 30?

Will the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season become a year round event like it is in the Pacific?

Will the buiding practices of americans have to be altered because of it?

Only time will tell...

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Thu Oct 27, 2005 4:08 pm

We have Beta...

but, not to worry as it is not a threat,
unless of course you live in Central America or have vacation plans
there as they expect up to 15 inches of rain from Beta...

Fifteen inches?

oy...
Tropical Storm Beta

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Thu Oct 27, 2005 6:14 pm

Dayummmm... they think it may become a hurricane by tomorrow... if so... watch out Nicuragua cuz here comes Beta...

TS Beta

TheStripey1 · **Posted:** Sat Oct 29, 2005 2:01 pm

We have Hurricane Beta... :shock:

currently a Cat 1 but they expect it to strengthem to a Cat 2 by tomorrow and even possibly...

:shock:

a Cat 3... :shock:

Hurricane Beta

Hurricane Season is JUST Around the Corner

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