Months of feverish negotiations, in different cities and at multiple levels, have gotten Israel and Hamas closer to striking a ceasefire deal. But even if an agreement is reached – still far from certain – it could end up lasting only weeks before it collapses and the war in Gaza resumes.
As senior negotiators prepare to meet this weekend in Cairo, there are still several sticking points in the talks over the potential three-phase agreement. But Israel has made it clear that following the initial six-week phase, a break in the fighting may be just that and it is not ready to agree to a permanent ceasefire.
“I am ready to do a partial deal, it is no secret, that will bring back some of the people,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel’s Channel 14 in late June. “But we are committed to continue the war after the pause in order to achieve the goal of destroying Hamas. I will not give up on this.”
There’s no indication that Israel’s position has changed and the fact this stance doesn’t violate the agreement being discussed represents a breakthrough for Israel in the negotiations. It essentially allows Israel – and Hamas – to abandon discussions after the six-week first phase and resume the war.
In a Middle East that is already fraught with tension, this is another dangerous moment.
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